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Why shouldn’t schools be allowed to come and leave as they like, given the freedom of coaches and athletes?
At least, that appears to be the argument made by one school. On Friday, the Florida State board of trustees decided in favor of filing a lawsuit against the ACC. The league’s Grant of Rights agreement and $130 million withdrawal fee will be contested by the institution.
The Seminoles presented a strong argument for their course of action. The exit cost and forfeited media rights have climbed in value from $21 million in 2012 to $572 million in 2023, according to Florida State’s legal counsel. 2014 saw Maryland withdraw from the ACC with a negotiated exit fee. There will be a few obvious conclusions reached if Florida State keeps going in this direction.
These three significant effects of Florida State’s legal action are possible outcomes.
MORE: The state of Florida sues the ACC
Is Florida State going to play in the SEC or Big Ten?
This is not the initial phase of Florida State’s exit from the ACC. That was during the previous realignment cycle, last summer, when their trustees were banging sabers. The compromise reached when the ACC included Cal, Stanford, and SMU was a modified revenue sharing arrangement. At stake were revenue disparities with the Big Ten and SEC.
After that, Florida State won the ACC title, ended 13-0, and was not included in the College Football Playoffs. Instead, Texas (12-1) and Alabama (12-1)—both of whom will play in the SEC next season—made the C
Florida State desires to play in either the Big Ten or the SEC. Which conference would be more receptive to such a proposal?
Here’s where the Big Ten may jump in and take over the Florida market. Despite Florida State’s lack of AAU accreditation, this would create an Atlantic division for the conference. Would Miami, Virginia, North Carolina, and others follow? Or would the Big Ten take advantage of Notre Dame with this?
Naturally, Florida State might go toward the SEC to preserve its rivalry with Florida; SEC commissioner Greg Sankey would have to decide on that.
In Oklahoma and Texas, the SEC secured the top two brands in the Big 12. Florida State came just one spot behind Virginia at No. 15 in USA Today’s revenue database for 2022. The Seminoles would have a third option in the Big 12, but it seems more like a last-ditch effort.Will a Super League result from FSU’s actions?
Along with a few other initiatives that are reigniting the conversation, NCAA President Charlie Baker released a proposal on December 5 that would allow highly-resourced schools to pay players at least $30,000 through a trust fund.
Identify it as Division 0. The Premier League. NFL Light. Whatever the nomenclature, we’ll get closer to that paradigm if Florida State leaves the ACC. As per the Associated Press, Baker expressed that the difference in quality between a few FBS institutions and the rest is posing “a new set of challenges.” There will be a conversation about revenue sharing, and some schools are more qualified than others to lead that conversation.
With the demise of the Pac-12, the Power 5 is no more. Is it absurd to consider a Power 2 conference like the SEC and Big Ten? There will be 16 SEC clubs and 18 Big Ten teams in 2024. The 68 Power 5 institutions that participated in 2023 are being reduced in number of “haves” to a figure decided by those two conferences. Going ahead, you have to be present at those conferences.
Florida State is aware of this and possesses the prestige of a team that won two Bowl Championship Series titles (1999, 2013) and a national championship (1993) before being left out of the College Football Playoffs in their final year as a four-team league. The musical chairs will continue for the remaining schools, who will essentially audition to be in those leagues, if the Seminoles move to the Big Ten or SEC.
How about Notre Dame? Perhaps it reconsiders the five-game deal with the ACC. Perhaps Clemson, NC State, and North Carolina will make the strongest case to the SEC. Sure, the 12-team College Football Playoff is available to the ACC and Big 12. But under the new arrangement, the Big Ten and SEC will control the majority of the at-large bids.
Consider Notre Dame. Maybe it reevaluates the five-game agreement with the ACC. Maybe NC State, North Carolina, and Clemson will present the strongest case to the SEC. Sure, the ACC and Big 12 have access to the 12-team College Football Playoff. However, the Big Ten and SEC will control most of the at-large bids under the new setup.