Bears pass on quarterback Caleb Williams to the commanders

I always approach my mock drafts a little differently than the conventional approach because I match players with teams focused on maximizing wins in the next season—in an organized manner. Here’s a brief overview of my workflow:

To estimate a player’s market value, I use the best information currently available on free agency, which is, to be honest, not much more than what we know about player contracts.
Next, I compare each team’s expected salary-cap space with the predicted market worth of free players.
Lastly, I assign prospective free agents or players selected through the draft to various teams and determine which players raise the predicted victory total of the teams the most. (To predict NFL performance, my player model uses historical pre-draft player data.)
Once more, I’m beginning this procedure early.

Picks 1 through 30 have a defined draft order as of this writing. The result of Super Bowl LVIII will dictate the order in which choices 31–32 are selected. In this mock, the order of those selections is determined by regular-season record; strength of schedule serves as a tiebreaker.
NFL Network and NFL+ will begin airing live coverage of the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine on February 29.

In this hypothetical scenario, the Bears select this high-floor (also known as lowered risk) long-term potential (20 years old) with a ton of upside and experience. The Bears’ offensive line, which allowed their quarterbacks to get pressured at the greatest percentage in the league (45.1 percent) the previous season, is immediately affected by Alt, who just passes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. This serves to highlight the worth of the Bears’ first-round equity, which will let them to make whatever kind of move they choose.

This is a match with more upside than it would have been a week ago because of Williams’ reunion with his former USC coach, Kliff Kingsbury, who is currently the OC at Washington. (before Kingsbury was hired). I’m not sure how much of a difference other people see in the QBs in this year’s selection, but for the top two, and maybe even the top three, my assessment boils down to refinements in styles, opponents, team infrastructure, etc.

Maye has a lot of advantages for my models, but one that really sticks out is the levels and routes he has created based on computer-vision tracking data. Although he wasn’t the most reliable route runner, he was incredibly accurate at connecting at a variety of throw speeds. The speed differential of his intermediate passes that resulted in receptions was roughly 7 mph. The average passing speed among Power Five quarterbacks at the intermediate level is 3.4 mph, but I only checked back three seasons.

I’m surprised more than anyone else that an offensive lineman wasn’t selected here, but this high-upside receiver is the best asset Kyler Murray and the strategy can have. Even though Harrison didn’t have the most accurate quarterback last season, his routes are accurate, dependable, and generate separation, which makes him a concern for defenses.

Each year, I receive some data that appears to be the model prototype (I compare players to these prototypes of “ideals”). Based on ball skills and burst/speed, the prototype here exhibits indications of an outstanding trajectory (Arnold improved as the season progressed). Add a dash of the possibility of getting caught acting overly aggressively to all of that. What makes this relevant to the Chargers section? Obviously, stopping the pass is essential, especially when facing Patrick Mahomes twice a year.

My WR2 is Odunze, by the narrowest of margins. In fact, in a 10-season sample, both his body control and contested-catch skills score in the top 20 percentile. It’s also shocking to me that, in this area of great need, my models didn’t select an O-lineman. That ought to demonstrate to you how highly my assessments value Odunze.

Under the guidance of offensive coordinator Nick Holz and offensive line coach Bill Callahan, Fashanu will be able to demonstrate his run-blocking skills while he gets used to playing pro-level pass protection. Another youthful tackle with potential for greatness in the NFL is Fashanu. He has experience. Because he is large and somewhat immobile when set, he is likely to flourish in the area of balance through touch early on.

High marks are shown by the model for pocket awareness, rapid release, and accuracy. Daniels’ ability to position his feet to throw in the top 10 percentile (fastest) in my 10-season sample, as opposed to throwing off-balance, is what I find most impressive about him.

Tigers win two in a row! Defenses may want to press Nabers because he ranks in the top 15 percentile for burst off the line of scrimmage. Of all the wide receivers in the last three NFL Scouting Combine classes, he also has the least amount of speed degradation when sprinting after impact.

My model seems to have a thing for Fuaga. I looked three times, and in a five-season sample, his center of gravity percentage—a measure of how frequently he maintains his balance through contact—ranks first among all right tackles in the run game. Pass Pro offers a number of advantages as well. I assume Aaron Rodgers would be happy with this selection.

Turner’s surge is in the top 20% among edge prospects in my sample of 10 seasons. His pressures cause disruption more frequently since he doesn’t lose speed or velocity when traveling in a non-straight line (he recorded 10 sacks last season, up from four as a sophomore). If Turner is the winner in this situation, defensive coordinator Brian Flores is probably going to give general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah a handwritten note of appreciation.

The road ahead of the draft is quite lengthy. We’ll be watching Denver’s quarterback play, but Broncos Country, if you select this extremely talented Iowa CB, your team will improve right away. To match Pat Surtain II with DeJean would be something truly unique. Because of his off-coverage experience, I was able to assess his straight line taking skill, which is in the top 18 percentile and can be used as a proxy for ball-tracking ability.

He led the FBS with a completion percentage of 77.4 last season, as you may have heard. However, did you know that on planned rollouts, he lost accuracy the least out of all five Power Five quarterbacks? You do now!

Select 14
Saints of New Orleans
Saints of New Orleans
Thomas Brian Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU Younger
With 17 receiving touchdowns, which came from the slot and wide receiver positions, Thomas topped the FBS. When combined, he and Chris Olave would be a very frightening combination for opposition defenders.

Select 15
The Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts
Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers
Georgia · TE · Being a new-mold tight end, Junior Bowers is expected to be particularly effective in a more contemporary scheme. Enter Anthony Richardson, Shane Steichen, and the

The plan of Colts. Similar to what we saw from rookie tight ends in Detroit and Buffalo last year, Bowers is the kind of versatile player that could have an immediate impact on the Colts’ offense. He can block, align in the slot and out wide, make catches in the coveted middle-third of the field, and generally intimidate defenders.

Select 16
The Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks
Byron Murphy II
Byron Murphy II
Junior · DT · Texas
Do I enjoy attempting to figure out how the 3-3-5 defense, which is popular in college, works in the NFL? Indeed, I do. Murphy is a dynamic player who registered five sacks from locations other than those where guys in that formation often rack up sacks. The Seahawks, under new head coach Mike, seem likeAs the architect, Macdonald will assist in making Murphy a very formidable foe.

Select 17
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
Verse Jared
Verse Jared
Florida State: An Advantage The template for a power rusher is Senior Verse. He has a top 25 percentile rate of victory in straight-ahead leverage confrontations against O-linemen. The combo of Josh Allen and company creates a ton of value in the run game, so utility is huge here (this assessment assumes Allen, an upcoming free agency, will be returning).

Select 18
Bengals of Cincinnati
Bengals of Cincinnati Latham, JC Latham, AL · Overtime · Younger
Latham is uncommonly large (6 feet 6 inches, 335 pounds), powerful, and demonstrated in college that he could win both passing and running scenarios. Additionally, he demonstrated on camera his rapid recoveryon a play, which would be very beneficial to Joe Burrow’s health.

Select 19
Rams of Los Angeles
Rams of Los Angeles
Guyton Tyler
OT · Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma Despite not having as much experience as some of the other O-linemen in his class (15 starts over four seasons), senior Guyton still possesses all the necessary skills, particularly if he gets to play alongside a more seasoned quarterback. Of all the active quarterbacks, only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have added more win shares to an offensive line than Matthew Stafford has throughout the last eight seasons.

Select 20
The Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers
Barton, Graham
Barton, Graham
Duke * IOL · Senior
During draft season, I analyze using a variety of models. The model is one of them.One helps project where a player will really end up; the other is more focused on coaches/GMs/franchise historical trends. I use to make picks for mock drafts. Barton is projected by that model to go in Round 2, but that may be partially because interior linemen are sometimes underrated in the draft, or at least not thought to be good enough to warrant a first-round pick when compared to other positions. Barton performs best at combo blocking, pulling, and going straight after the defensive tackle. He could improve the Steelers’ run game, which would be to Arthur Smith’s delight as the new offensive coordinator.

Select Miami Dolphins (21).
Dolphins of Miami
Coleman Keon
Coleman Keon
Junior Coleman, WR for Florida State, is ranked in thetop 22nd percentile in the 10-season sample for contested-catch rate and possesses adaptability in alignment. Add his skill to the team’s already impressive speed… and whoa.

Select 22
Eagles of Philadelphia
Eagles of Philadelphia
Jackson Powers-Johnson
Jackson Powers-Johnson
Oregon · Junior · IOL
As I previously mentioned, my model has a thing for Fuaga. It may also be enamored with JPJ, though. Finding a rookie to replicate Jason Kelce’s influence in the locker room and on the field is a ridiculous idea, but JPJ has the abilities and output to properly pay tribute to the eventual Hall of Famer. Of all the eligible centers, the Oregon product had the fewest negative plays at the center position (he has played interior O-line and has taken snaps at DT).computer vision of the Power Five from the previous season. Another lineman ranked #1 in the rankings.

Take the 23 Houston Texans.
Texans from Houston (via CLE)
Mitchell Quinyon
CB · Quinyon Mitchell Toledo Senior Mitchell has the kind of explosion that’s entertaining to follow and watch. He has been useful in stopping the run, and he can stop and start with remarkable skill. He can also turn his hips without losing speed. His burst is among the top 30 percent of CBs (10-season sample) according to his Toledo film.

Select 24
The Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys
Troy Fautanu
Troy Fautanu OL · Washington At the professional level, senior Fautanu plans to play left tackle, though he can go inside if necessary. He is a vicious run-blocker andremarkable when viewed on screens. I’m not saying Tyron Smith has to be replaced by making fun of Fautanu to the Cowboys. I am concerned, though, about the 33-year-old veteran’s capacity to maintain his health for the entire season.

Select 25
Packers in Green Bay
Packers in Green Bay
Wiggins, Nate
Nate Wiggins, junior, Clemson, CB
Wiggins’ potential was first observed by new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, a former Boston College head coach who led the team to victory in a 31-3 victory over the Eagles in 2022. Hafley was impressed by the quick Clemson cornerback’s two pass breakups during that game. Wiggins should record a scorching 40-yard sprint time because he possesses many excellent man-coverage skills and his in-game speed. Wiggins should strengthen the Packers’ defense from the back end, so adding him gives GreenThe best value at this location is Bay.

Select 26
Tampa Bay Eagles
Tampa Bay Eagles
Ennis Rakestraw Sr.
Junior (RS) Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri · CB
Rakestraw appears to be the model for Todd Bowles: He compares positively in run support and ball-tracking abilities, but he is in the bottom-15 percentile at his position in “fatigue rate,” meaning he doesn’t slow down at the conclusion of games. For the fit, a chef’s kiss.

Select 27
Cardinals of Arizona
Cardinals of Arizona (via HOU)
Amadeus Mims
Amadeus Mims
Junior · OT · Georgia
The O-line assistance is now here! Thus, the Cardinals acquire both Mims and Marvin Harrison Jr. Despite starting just eight games in his three seasons as a college (partly because of injuries), the former Bulldog has a ton of potential. I invested aMims has an extremely low chance of being a waist-bender at the next level, based on my year-long efforts to measure waist-benders. What is meant by that? He’s got a good probability of winning leverage matches on a regular basis.

Select 28
The Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills
Troy Franklin
Troy Franklin
Oregon · WR · Junior Franklin is a tall receiver (6 feet three inches) with experience running fast in pads. He has also played in the slot and out wide. He’ll provide the Bills’ offense a burst of energy and YAC ability.

Select 29
Lions of Detroit
Lions of Detroit
Slice Robinson Slice Robinson
Junior · Penn State · Edge
The Lions need to improve in two areas: perimeter defense and pass rush. In this example, Detroit chooses the former, going with the Penn State edge rusher.He has a superior off-ball burst. In the 10 season sample, Robinson’s collegiate speed in pads was in the ninth percentile for his position. DC Aaron Glenn would probably have no trouble dealing with it.

Select 30
Ravens of Baltimore
Ravens of Baltimore
Laiatu Latu
Laiatu Latu
UCLA · Lead · Final
The greatest fit for the Ravens in my model is a tie between Latu and Devontez Walker, a wide receiver from North Carolina, but Latu has a little edge due to his value at the edge-rushing position. It will be important to keep an eye on Latu’s pre-draft medical examinations because, prior to transferring to UCLA, he did suffer a major neck injury at Washington. If Baltimore were to take a different approach at the position, Darius Robinson of Mizzou would be the next in line.

Select 31 KansasChiefs of City
The Chiefs of Kansas City
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Junior L’Jarius Sneed, the cornerback for Alabama, seems to have worked himself into a huge pay day this offseason, which suggests Kansas City may have a cornerback opening come next season. Results from McKinstry’s agility drills and 40-yard dash will be very important, especially considering how tight the gap is in my models between him and UNC wide receiver Devontez Walker—who will probably run quickly in Indianapolis—and the Chiefs’ penchant for quick plays.

Select 32
49ers of San Francisco
49ers of San Francisco
Jordan Morgan
Morgan Jordan
Arizona · OT · Senior
Morgan is one of the few left tackle prospects that projects to play on the right side early in his career. Actually, his statisticsimply that he would probably be able to transition to a different position and contribute significantly to the Niners’ offense as early as Week 1. He also offers great position diversity because of how fast he can change out of his stance and rebound after losing the first battle.