Good news: Alex Johnston the most highest try scorer because of …..

I’ve been thinking lately about one of, if not the, most elusive records in Rugby League: the all-time try-scoring record. In my lifetime, I’ve seen the all-time point-scoring record fall five times, yet the great Ken Irvine’s tally of 212 career tries hasn’t looked close to being beaten in almost half a century. So far, the closest any player has come to claiming the crown has been Billy Slater. But, despite amassing 319 First Grade games (the 23rd highest number of games in history), Slater still finished 22 tries short, finishing his career on 190. Even well-known try-scoring machines like Steve Menzies and Brett Morris have fallen well short of Irvine’s benchmark.

Irvine’s career was as outstanding as his record, including back-to-back premierships with Manly, captaining North Sydney and representing his state and country. His record of 212 tries was amassed in 236 matches, giving him a strike rate of 0.9 tries per game. However, after almost 50 years, a true contender has again emerged to challenge the biggest record in Rugby League: South Sydney’s Alex Johnston.

Alex Johnston’s try-scoring ability is well-known, having won the aptly named Ken Irvine Medal for top try-scorer the last two seasons in a row. After 177 First Grade games, Johnston has tallied 144 tries, placing him at 18th overall, with a strike rate of 0.81 tries per game. He only needs 10 tries to equal Nathan Merritt as Souths’ highest try-scorer and is an outside chance of being in the all-time top 10 by season’s end.

As impressive as this is, digging a little deeper into his stats paints an interesting picture. Johnston has played 59 games at fullback for Souths, during which time he scored 23 tries at a strike rate of just 0.39 per game. When you consider only his 117 games at wing, where Johnston now plays full-time, he has scored 121 tries. That’s an astonishing strike rate in excess of 1 per game. When Alex Johnston is playing on the wing, there is a 62.4% chance that he will score a try and, when he does score, there is 42.5% chance that he will score again in the same game.

So, what does this all mean for Johnston’s chances at claiming the all-time try-scoring crown?

Johnston currently needs 68 tries to equal Ken Irvine’s record. Based on his strike rate of 1.03 tries per game as a winger, we could reasonably expect him to reach the milestone in Round 7 of 2025 in his 245th career game. Of course, this assumes that the number of matches in a season remains at 24 and does not take into account finals games, potential injuries or suspensions.

This would be the best-case scenario for Johnston. However, even if we work off his (lower) career strike rate of 0.81, the milestone game would still occur in season 2025, but not until round 24 in Johnston’s 261st career game. In 2025, Alex Johnston will be 30 years of age.

Now, there are some factors that could affect his chances. Most obviously is the fact that Souths have lost Adam Reynolds, the halfback that AJ has played with his entire career, and Souths form has dropped significantly. However, he still plays outside Cody Walker who, despite a bit of a form slump this season, is an absolute machine when it comes to try-assists. His strike rate has also improved since Latrell Mitchell joined the club in 2020, who Souths are hoping to welcome back in a few weeks.

The biggest factor in AJ’s favour is time. At 27 years old, if he can stay fit and join the 300-game club. His chances of breaking the record are arguably guaranteed. With an increasing number of wingers notching up 300 games and playing into their 30s, (including the Morris twins and Hazem el Masri), this is not an unreasonable expectation. Furthermore, if Souths can gel with their new, young halfback and maintain some of the form they’ve had over the last four seasons, his chances will only improve. After sitting unbroken for half a century, achieving the milestone would be an absolutely incredible feat.

At least we know that if he does equal Ken Irvine’s record, there is a 42.5% chance he will break it in the same game

Menzies was one of those forwards who just knew where to be to back-up and score the try. The amount of times he backed-up Cliffy Lyons was just ridiculous. Seemed like sometimes he was the only player that knew how to play with Lyons and help pull-off Lyons’ crazy attacking skill. Also having a career that spans 2 decades helps add to the total lol.