Agent Opinion: Dividing goal costs for ten interesting offensive players whose contracts

A shut mouth cannot be satisfied. If a client doesn’t ask for anything, an agent can’t obtain it for them. The easy part is to just ask. Getting an asking or goal price can be challenging, particularly if the athlete has few pursuers.

It’s possible that agents and NFL teams have a general idea of the 2024 free agent market already. The NFL Combine, which concluded on March 4, is a regular venue for meetings between teams and the representatives of incoming free agents. NFL regulations officially forbid these kinds of conversations. When players from other teams are about to become free agents, teams almost never get punished for meddling with them.

On March 11, teams’ exclusive negotiation rights with their upcoming free agents come to an end. That’s when the NFL teams have two days, starting at noon on March 11 and concluding at 3:59:59 p.m. ET on March 13, to negotiate with the agencies of potential unrestricted free agents. Without an agent, prospective UFAs can also bargain with team front-office personnel. Free agency officially begins at 4 p.m. ET on April 20, 2024, and players cannot sign contracts with new teams until then. During that time, a player is permitted to re-sign with his existing team.

Recently, NFL teams and players received some pleasantly surprising news. $255.4 million has been designated as the salary cap for 2024. first estimates made in DecemberThe wage cap for 2024 should be between $240 and $245 million. The pay cap of $224.8 million in 2023 will rise to $30.6 million, a historic increase.

When preparing for discussions on behalf of clients, it has become rather normal for agents to modify current contracts for salary cap inflation from the time of signing, especially if there is a fairly considerable increase in the salary limit, such as the 13.61% increase this year. With NFL clubs, this strategy’s persuasiveness varies. While I was representing players, I discovered that certain teams were skeptical of this kind of approach, while others were relatively open to it.

Whether or not I was the lead agent, it was my duty as an agent to develop target or asking pricing for the firm’s customers moving toward free agency. In that vein, I have established target values for ten exciting offensive players who will be unrestricted free agents or who were designated as franchise players, taking into account total deal value, overall guarantees, and amount fully guaranteed at signing.

Because free agency is a fluid process where adjustments must be made to changing market conditions, players don’t always sign for their desired prices. Some players are unhappy with the results of free agency because, for a number of reasons (such as age, irrational contract demands, supply and demand at playing position, etc.), their market never grows.

Contract package: $125 million for three years ($41,666,667 annually, plus incentives up to $131 million)

Total amount of guarantees: $85 million

At the time of agreement, 100% assured: $85 million

Cousins would make just less than $43 million annually if his soon-to-expire one-year contract extension worth $35 million, which he signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2022, were adjusted for salary cap inflation. The season-ending ruptured right Achilles injury that Kirk Cousins sustained in a Week 8 game against the Green Bay Packers, when he was perhaps playing the greatest football of his 12-year NFL career, is explained by asking for a little less than this total.

For cap purposes, the 2024 and 2025 contract years were worthless as part of this 2022 extension. To generate $16 million of 2023 cap space, a 2023 contract restructure was applied to the cancellation of the 2026 and 2027 contract years. On March 13, the 2023 league year comes to a conclusion, nullifying all four years.

These four dummy years mean that if the Vikings don’t sign a new contract by March 13, they will be subject to a $28.5 million cap charge. Even if Cousins is later re-signed, the $28.5 million becomes a sunk expense for the Vikings once voiding occurs.

$160 million over four years ($40 million annually) is the contract package.

Total amount of guarantees: $122.5 million

At the time of agreement, 100% assured: $85 million

In 2023, Mayfield had the finest contract year of all. In order to compete with Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback position after Tom Brady, he accepted a cheap one-year, $4 million “prove it” deal from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which could have been worth up to $8.5 million in incentives. After defeating Trask in a training camp skirmish, Mayfield never looked back.

With a 9-8 record, the Buccaneers won the NFC South for the third time in a row, and Mayfield revitalized his career. Season highs for him included 4,044 passing yards (ranked ninth in the NFL), 28 passing touchdowns (ranked seventh), and a 64.3% completion percentage. After defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round and falling to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round, the Buccaneers made it to the divisional playoffs for just the third time in their previous 21 years.

Mayfield completed 48 of 77 pass attempts (62.3%) with a 106.3 passer rating and threw for 686 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in the two postseason games. He is the only quarterback in Buccaneers history to pass for three touchdowns and more than 300 yards in a postseason game.game, as the top overall choice of 2018 performed in each of the two postseason games.

Todd Bowles, the head coach of the Buccaneers, stated that Mayfield had earned the right to make a comeback in 2024 following his playoff elimination. When Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans declared his intention to stay with the Buccaneers, Mayfield pushed for his return. Evans recently inked a $41 million, two-year contract that has $35 million in guarantees, of which $29 million is completely guaranteed at signing. The deal has incentives and a pay escalator worth up to $52 million.

Mayfield is undoubtedly interested in the four-year, $160 million contract Daniel Jones signed with the New York Giants in March of last year. Of those guarantees, $104 million were fully guaranteed at the time of signing. Thanks to fairly realistically possible incentives and compensation escalators, Jones’ contract has a maximum value of $195 million, or $48.75 million each year.

While it wouldn’t be shocking if Mayfield signed a contract in the Geno Smith vicinity, NFLPA data indicates that the average yearly compensation for starting quarterbacks in 2023—aside from those on rookie contracts—was $37,651,853. Smith signed a three-year, $75 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks, with an average annual salary of $25 million and $40 million in guarantees, of which $27.5 million were completely guaranteed.

during the signing in March of last year. Through compensation escalators, the deal is worth up to $105 million, with an average annual value of $35 million.

The $40 million annual goal price set by Mayfield is predicated on quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s upcoming contract expiration with the Tennessee Titans. With $91 million in guarantees over four years, including $62 million fully guaranteed at signing in 2020, Tannehill inked a $118 million contract.

$33 million over three years ($11 million year) is the contract package.

$23 million in total guarantees

$20 million fully guaranteed at signing

The state of the economy is not good for running backs who are about to enter free agency. With Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and D’Andre Swift joining the open market, it looks that supply outpaces demand.

Running backs were one area where NFL teams used financial prudence in free agency last year. Miles Sanders received the best deal available on the open market. After a 2022 season with the Eagles in which he had career highs of 1,269 running yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, which were seventh and eighth in the NFL, he signed a four-year, $25.64 million contract with the Carolina Panthers,the NFL, in turn.

Barkley began negotiations in the middle of the 2022 season, but was unable to reach a deal before the mid-July deadline for franchise players to sign multi-year contracts. Barkley played the 2023 season on a $10.091 million franchise tag last season, with $909,000 worth of incentives added for a maximum of $11 million after he and the Giants. At this time, he allegedly turned down a three-year offer in the neighborhood of $11 million per year with guarantees of between $22 and $23 million. These parties were reportedly within $2 million of Barkley’s desired amount to finalize a deal. with $13 million fully guaranteed.

Given the running back situation, Barkley receiving what he turned down in July of last year would be a significant win for him. In the worst case, his salary should be marginally more than Sanders’ $6.35 million contract with the Panthers each year.

$20 million over two years ($10 million annually) is the contract deal.

Total assurances: $14 million

$11 million fully guaranteed at signing

With two significant possible obstacles in his way, Henry may face a down market for running backs. He reached the 2,000-career carry mark in the 2023 season, having turned 30 in January. In NFL history, Henry’s 2,030 rushing attempts are ranked 42nd.

Despite his age and mileage, Henry still has some gas left in the tank. With 1,167 running yards on a league-high 280 carries last season, he was second in the NFL.

According to advanced measurements, Henry won’t catch up to Father Time by 2024. Henry routinely outperforms Pro Football Focus in the yards after contact stat, which makes sense considering how much work he puts in. His 930 yards were the most for 2023. More significantly, Henry finished sixth in the league in 2017 with 3.32 yards after contact per rushing attempt (minimum of 100 runs). For the past three seasons, it has remained largely consistent, coming in fourth place in 2022 with 3.6 and ninth place in 2021 with 3.32.

The 15 highest-paid running backs in 2023 with veteran contracts made an average salary of slightly over $9.975 million annually, with an average contract term of 2.73 additional years. Henry utilized it as a benchmark for his target price.

The ideal circumstancefor Henry is most likely a team that sees him as the offensive jigsaw piece needed to win a title. The Dallas Cowboys and the Baltimore Ravens are two clubs that might fit within this description.